Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Summit County Colorado Real Estate Market Conditions - November 2011 Update

Real Estate Statistics

September numbers up from August by over 20%
Absorption down to 10 months in Summit

September 2011 had a total of 141 residential improved transactions, up 23 from August’s 118. Total residential dollar volume in September was $74.4M up from $60.8M in August, an increase of 22.3%.

Dollar volume for all types of property was $79.8M in September, an increase of 21.2% from August’s $65.8M. Total number of transactions in September for all types of real estate was 162 up 12 from August’s 150. September 2011 dollar volume was up 2% from September 2010 which posted $78.2M in sales.

October 2011 residential sales from our MLS indicate 117 residential properties sold with dollar volume at $54.1 million.

The price point with the most activity in September is the $300,000-$400,000 with 35 sales. In second place is the $200,000 - $300,000 range with 25 sales.
Average prices from 2006 to 2010 are below; 2011 numbers reflect year to date.

Single Family Homes:

2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $754,370 ($768,831 - September, $765,425 – August, $792,010-June)

Multi Family:

2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $373,023 ($376,646 - September, $385,850-August, $399,832-June)

Vacant Land:

2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $245,372 ($251,015 - September, $254,214-August, $261,398-June)

As of November 1, 2011, there are 1,408 residential listings down 244 from 1,652 residential properties for sale last month. You can expect inventory to continue to drop as sellers who haven’t sold their properties take them off the market and prepare them for winter rentals. The total dollar value of current inventory is $1 billion. As of the same date there are 379 land listings, down 22 from October.

With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 297; median days on the market is 167. Days on market again increased this month because of much less new inventory entering the market and a lack of sales.

Our MLS is showing 194 residential properties currently Pending, down 1 from October 3, 2011. Total dollar volume of pending properties per list price is $93.5 million. Pending properties in November are almost exactly the same as in October showing continuing signs of buyer activity.

According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land. When looking at inventory for sale, 5.4% of residential properties are for sale and 14.7% of vacant land parcels are for sale. Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory.
Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market. With 141 residential properties selling in September and inventory of 1,408, it will take 10 months to sell the entire residential inventory. The decrease in inventory combined with a higher than number of sold properties in September brought absorption from 14 months in August and 21.6 months in July down to 10 in September. While still a buyer’s market, shaving the absorption rate over half is a sign of improvement.
Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in September from 2004 to 2011:

September 2004 $116.1M
September 2005 $161.3M
September 2006 $219.9M
September 2007 $168.7M
September 2008 $127.0M
September 2009 $81.0M
September 2010 $78.2M
September 2011 $79.8M

Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2010 is as follows:

2004 $1.12B
2005 $1.47B
2006 $1.63B
2007 $1.63B
2008 $1.06B
2009 $683M
2010 $698.4M

The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.

What does all of this mean to you?

With a decrease in inventory due to the winter rental season approaching and a usually strong September, absorption rates in Summit are at 10 months – close to a neutral market defined as 6 months of inventory. This is a good sign, but only a snapshot of one month that has historically high sales combined with properties leaving the market.

September 2009-2011 have produced sales volume at about half of 2005-2007. The year 2008 straddled in the middle. Assuming half the amount of sales, with most of the volume in the lower price ranges, sellers are still experiencing a strong buyer’s market, although not as strong as in the past.

To the Sellers out there: There are signs that things are getting better. While still a relatively slow market, absorption time is decreasing and dollar volume is remaining steady.

To the Buyers out there: This past weekend buyer clients of mine wanted to see around 10 properties. All 10 were active on Thursday. By Sunday, three had gone under contract. I was surprised, but then noted that they were looking for a good value, space, a garage, and a price point that was attractive to others. The market is a buyer’s market, but some sectors are more competitive than others.
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