Friday, December 2, 2011

Summit County Colorado Real Estate Market Conditions - October 2011 Update

October down 15% from September and down 15% Year Over Year.

October 2011 proves to be lowest dollar volume October since 2004.
Absorption Continues to Decrease and Number of Transactions Increase.

October 2011 had a total of 136 residential improved transactions, down 5 from September’s 141. Total residential dollar volume in October was $62.7M down from 74.4M in September, a decrease of 15.7%.

Dollar volume for all types of property was $67.8M in October, a decrease of 15% from September’s $79.8M. Total number of transactions in October for all types of real estate was 161 down only 1 from September’s 160. October 2011 dollar volume was down 15% from October 2010 which posted $79.7M in sales.

November 2011 residential sales from our MLS indicate 108 residential properties sold with dollar volume at $52.3 million.

The price point with the most activity in October is the $200,000-$300,000 and $300,000-$400,000 with 28 sales each. In second place is the under $200,000 price point with 23 sales and rounding out third place is the $500,000-$600,000 price point with 22 sales.
Average prices from 2006 to 2010 are below; 2011 numbers reflect year to date.

Single Family Homes:

2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $750,429 ($754,370 - September $768,831 - August, $765,425 – July)

Multi Family:

2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $362,619 ($373,023 – September, $376,646 - August, $385,850- July)

Vacant Land:

2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $252,903 ($245,372 – September, $251,015 - August, $254,214- July)

As of December 1, 2011, there are 1,302 active residential listings in Summit County, down 106 from 1,408 in November. You can expect inventory to continue to drop until May. The total dollar value of current inventory is $950 million. As of the same date there are 373 land listings, down 6 from November.

With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 302; median days on the market is 183. Days on market again increased this month because of much less new inventory entering the market.

Our MLS is showing 183 residential properties currently Pending, down 11 from November. Total dollar volume of pending properties per list price is $91.2 million. Pending properties continue to remain steady indicating that the market is not dropping out for the winter months.

According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land. When looking at inventory for sale, 5% of residential properties are for sale and 14.5% of vacant land parcels are for sale. Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory.
Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market. With 136 residential properties selling in October and inventory of 1,302, it will take 9.5 months to sell the entire residential inventory. Absorption time in Summit County is becoming shorter, showing signs of an improving market. Note, however, that winter months historically have less inventory.
Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in October from 2004 to 2011:

October 2004 $117.4M
October 2005 $152.6M
October 2006 $188.7M
October 2007 $146.5M
October 2008 $118.2M
October 2009 $92.7M
October 2010 $79.7M
October 2011 $67.8M

Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2010 is as follows:

2004 $1.12B
2005 $1.47B
2006 $1.63B
2007 $1.63B
2008 $1.06B
2009 $683M
2010 $698.4M

The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.

What does all of this mean to you?

October 2011 has proven to be the worst performing October since 2004 (the earliest year for which I have records.) in terms of dollar volume. Having said that, number of transactions continues to remain stable indicating that lower priced inventory combined with decreasing property values are driving down the total dollar volume yet the total number of transactions remains fairly steady.

Months of absorption again decreased this month with only 9.5 months of inventory in Summit County. When new listings hit the market in spring, you can expect absorption numbers to increase until the summer selling season again takes that number down.

To the Sellers out there: There are signs that things are getting better – or at least, not getting worse! While still a relatively slow market, absorption time is decreasing and there is less inventory.

To the Buyers out there: Last month I mentioned a situation where buyers looking for property wanted to see ten properties and three were under contract a few days later. A similar thing happened to me just yesterday when I made appointments to see 9 properties and one went under contract and another had an offer being negotiated. There are good deals to be had in this market but the best values will continue to be picked up by buyers who see the opportunity to get into this market during this downturn. I especially see this happening in the under $400,000 market.
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