Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Summit County Colorado Real Estate Market Conditions - December 2011 and 2011 Year in Review

Real Estate Statistics

December statistics similar to November
2011 shows slight declines from 2010

December 2011 had a total of 115 residential improved transactions, up 1 from November’s 114. Total residential dollar volume in December was $54.9M up from $52.8M in November an increase of 3.9%. November and December were very similar in both dollar volume and number of transactions.

Dollar volume for all types of property was $61.6M in December, an increase of 5.8% from November’s $58.2M. Total number of transactions in December for all types of real estate was 140 down 2 from November’s 142. December 2011 dollar volume was down 13% from December 2010 which posted $70.7M in sales.

January 2012 residential sales from our MLS indicate 61 residential properties sold with dollar volume at $30.8 million – not impressive numbers

The price point with the most activity in December is the $300,000-$400,000 with 25 sales. In second place is the under $200,000-$300,000 price point with 20 sales.

Average prices from 2006 to 2011 are as follows:

Single Family Homes:

2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $734,262 (December - $745,009, November - $750,429, October - $754,370)

Multi Family:

2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $367,280 ( December - $363,865, November - $362,619 – October, $373,023)

Vacant Land:

2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $246,478 (December, $255,079, November - $252,903, October, $245,372)

As of February 1, 2012, there are 1,172 active residential listings in Summit County, down 19 from 1,191 at the beginning of January. You can expect inventory to continue to drop until May. The total dollar value of current inventory is $858 million. As of the same date there are 355 land listings, up 14 from January.

With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 420; median days on the market is 279. Days on market dramatically increased this month because of much less new inventory entering the market. DOM will continue to increase until spring when more new listings come on the market. At that time, expect for average days on the market to drop dramatically.

Our MLS is showing 134 residential properties currently Pending, up 11 from January. Total dollar volume of pending properties per list price is $77.7 million. Pending properties increased slightly over last month.

According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land. When looking at inventory for sale, 4.5% of residential properties are for sale and 13.8% of vacant land parcels are for sale. Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory.

Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market. With 115 residential properties selling in December and inventory of 1,172, it will take 10.1 months to sell the entire residential inventory.

Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in December from 2004 to 2011:

December 2004 $135.6M
December 2005 $143.0M
December 2006 $156.7M
December 2007 $135.6M
December 2008 $61.0M
December 2009 $102.6M
December 2010 $70.7M
December 2011 $61.6M

Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2011 is as follows:

2004 $1.12B
2005 $1.47B
2006 $1.63B
2007 $1.63B
2008 $1.06B
2009 $683M
2010 $698.4M
2011 $684.2M

The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.

2011 Year in Review

From 2009 to 2010, dollar volume increased by 2% and from 2010 to 2011, it decreased 2% leaving us at a wash for the last two years. The Number of Transactions increased by 10% over 2011. The same amount of dollar volume and a 10% increase in number of transactions illustrates the price decline of property values combined with the popularity of lower priced properties.




To illustrate the change in the market using the measures of Dollar Volume and Number of Transactions from the years 2004 to 2010 see below:

Year % Change Dollar Volume % Change Number Transactions
2004
2005 31% 14%
2006 11% -2%
2007 0% -11%
2008 -35% -43%
2009 -36% -32%
2010 2% 6%
2011 -2% 10%

Average prices for Summit County real estate comparing 2010 to 2011 show a decrease in value of the average price of all real estate at 8.2%. Single family homes declined at a rate of 5% after decreasing 15% in 2010. Multi family properties decreased 7% after increasing 7% in 2010. Vacant land value decreased 27% from 2010 to 2011 after decreasing 16% from 2009 to 2010. Median price changes show a reduction of 4% in single family homes and a decrease of 7% in multi family prices. Vacant land has seen a decrease of 49% of value looking at the median after a 46% median decline the prior year. Suffice it to say, vacant land is not a good place to be.




What does all of this mean to you?

The year 2011 looks very similar to 2010. We have seen a modest additional decline in values since 2010, but overall, the percentage decline appears to be 20% from the height of the market with some variability depending on the sector. Vacant land, however, saw even greater declines. 2012 will improve only if consumer confidence improves. This market is a resort market and with over 60% of buyers purchasing second homes, these discretionary purchases have to make sense in the mind (and gut) of buyers. For those who are ready to make the plunge, prices are favorable and will likely not get much lower.

Denver is experiencing a recovery in the under $300,000 market with a huge lack of inventory. Historically, our market lags around 12 months behind Denver. Expect the market to continue to improve slowly unless we experience some catastrophic event in the economy.
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