Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Summit County Colorado Real Estate Market Conditions - March 2012 Update

Real Estate Statistics

January 2012 numbers down by one-third from December 2011.
Absorption of residential properties at 15 months with median days on the market at 287.

January 2012 had a total of 79 residential improved transactions, down 36 from December’s 115 – a decrease of 31%. Total residential dollar volume in January was $37.8M down $17.1M from December’s $54.9M a decrease of 31%.

Dollar volume for all types of property was $40.1M in January a decrease of 35% from December’s $61.6M. Total number of transactions in January for all types of real estate was 96 down 44 from December’s 140 – a decrease of 31%. January 2012 dollar volume was down 8% from January 2011 which posted $43.5M in sales.

February 2012 residential sales from our MLS indicate 62 residential properties sold with dollar volume at $36.7 million – not showing any dramatic increase from a paltry January.

The price point with the most activity in January 2012 is the $300,000-$400,000 and $400,000-$500,000 with 16 sales each. In second place is the under $200,000 price point with 12 sales and $200,000-$300,000 has 11 sales.

Average prices from 2006 to 2011 are as follows; 2012 numbers are year to date averages:

Single Family Homes:

2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $734,262
2012 - $665,421

Multi Family:

2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $367,280
2012 - $337,853

Vacant Land:

2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $246,478
2012 - $131,500

As of March 1, 2012, there are 1,188 active residential listings in Summit County, up 16 from the beginning of February. The total dollar value of current inventory is $864 million. As of the same date there are 370 land listings, up 15 from February.

With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 424; median days on the market is 287.

Our MLS is showing 154 residential properties currently Pending, up 20 from February. Total dollar volume of pending properties per list price is $82.4 million. Pending properties increased over last month which will show a slight upward trend in closings in the next 30-60 days.

According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land. When looking at inventory for sale, 4.6% of residential properties are for sale and 14.4% of vacant land parcels are for sale. Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory.

Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market. With 79 residential properties selling in January and inventory of 1,188, it will take 15 months to sell the entire residential inventory.

Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in January from 2004 to 2011:

January 2004 $41.8M
January 2005 $80.7M
January 2006 $85.7M
January 2007 $82.9M
January 2008 $85.4M
January 2009 $32.8M
January 2010 $30.0M
January 2011 $43.5M
January 2012 $40.1M

Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2011 is as follows:

2004 $1.12B
2005 $1.47B
2006 $1.63B
2007 $1.63B
2008 $1.06B
2009 $683M
2010 $698.4M
2011 $684.2M

The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.

What does all of this mean to you?

January numbers did not impress compared to the previous two years, but the good news is that January 2012 was better than January 2009 and January 2010 at the height of the recession. Property types that are selling the best are multi-family units under the $400,000 price point. Since the recession began, the most attractive properties are of course those that are priced under market and are obvious good values in the marketplace. For Sellers who are aren’t willing to price slightly under market, you will be holding onto your properties for awhile.

As I mentioned last month, I am hearing from my colleagues in Denver that there is a lack of inventory in the market for single family homes under $300,000. In fact, new listings in this sector have multiple offers on them. Primary home owners are looking to buy now. This trend will have a ripple effect and as consumer confidence increases, second home owners will look to Summit County for investment and enjoyment potential. Historically, our market lags around 12 months behind Denver. Expect the market to continue to improve slowly unless we experience some catastrophic event in the economy.
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