Monday, July 2, 2012

Summit County Colorado Market Report - May/June 2012

Slow and steady signs of improvement from winter to spring.

March and April 2012 drop from 2011.



March 2012 had a total of 66 residential improved transactions, up 5 from February’s 61 and April showed marked improvement with a total of 92 residential transactions. Total residential dollar volume in March was $33.8M and April was $45.5M. February fell in the middle with $37.7M. Dollar volume for all types of property was $37.4M in March, down from $43.1M in February.

Again, April showed improvement with $52.7M in all types of real estate transactions. May 2012 residential sales from our MLS indicate 98 residential properties sold with dollar volume at $48.2 million.

Spring months are showing slow signs of improvement and as we hit late summer, we will be able to see how the market is faring. March’s strongest price points were properties between $200,000-$400,000. April showed strong sales in price points under $600,000, and had 20 transactions between $200,000-$300,000.

Average prices from 2006 to 2011 are as follows; 2012 numbers are year to date averages through April 2012:

Single Family Homes:
2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $734,262
2012 - $735,008

Multi Family:
2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $367,280
2012 - $361,315

Vacant Land:
2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $246,478
2012 - $236,082

As of May 31, 2012, there are 1,387 active residential listings in Summit County. The number continues to increase slowly as we get closer to the high summer selling season. The total dollar value of current inventory is $965 million. As of the same date there are 401 land listings, an increase by around 10% from earlier this year.

With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 381; median days on the market is 272.

Our MLS is showing 178 residential properties currently Pending with a total dollar volume of $97 million. Pending properties have dropped slightly since earlier this year, but only by about 10 properties. Again, expect to see these numbers increasing as summer progresses.

According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land. When looking at inventory for sale, 5.4% of residential properties are for sale and 15.6% of vacant land parcels are for sale. Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory. Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market. With 92 residential properties selling in April and inventory of 1,387, it will take around 15 months to sell the entire residential inventory.

Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in March and April from 2004 to 2012:

March 2004 $69.1M
March 2005 $90.2M
March 2006 $108M
March 2007 $92.6M
March 2008 $95.4M
March 2009 $37.9M
March 2010 $37.4M
March 2011 $44.9M
March 2012 $37.4M (down 17% from 2011)

April 2004 $77.4M
April 2005 $94.4M
April 2006 $111M
April 2007 $133.9M
April 2008 $94.2M
April 2009 $37.8M
April 2010 $40.8M
April 2011 $66.3M
April 2012 $52.8M (down 20% from 2011)

Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2011 is as follows:
2004 $1.12B
2005 $1.47B
2006 $1.63B
2007 $1.63B
2008 $1.06B
2009 $683M
2010 $698.4M
2011 $684.2M

The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.

If you would like to see the statistics from Land Title that provides the source for this newsletter, here is a link:
April: http://ltgc.com/files/breckenridge-marketstats/APRIL2012SUMMIT.pdf
March: http://ltgc.com/files/breckenridge-marketstats/MARCH2012SUMMIT.pdf

What does all of this mean to you?

April has shown continued signs of improvement for the Summit County Real Estate market and May MLS data shows another increase. Generally we expect an increase in sales in the summer but spring months showing signs of improvement is a good sign pointing toward a recovering market. Year over year, spring 2012 worsened from spring 2011. With early season activity (both in terms of showings, contracts and buyers), it appears that summer is going to be an improvement since the recession.

If you are interested in buying, we seem to climbing out of the bottom. If you are a seller, you will need to be priced competitively within other inventory because buyers are sophisticated and educated. Denver is showing strong signs of recovery and Summit County tends to lag 12-18 months behind. If this historical trend holds true, you have one year to smartly buy a Summit County property!
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