July dollar volume decreases from June by almost 30%!
August may show signs of slight improvement
July 2011 had a total of 83 residential improved transactions, down two from June 2011. Total residential dollar volume in July was $33.0M, down $13.7M from $46.7M in June, a decrease of almost 30%!
Dollar volume for all types of property was $35.5M in July, a decrease of 45% from June’s $65.7M. Total number of transactions in July for all types of real estate was 98, down 6 from June’s 104.
August 2011 residential sales from our MLS indicate 96 residential properties sold with dollar volume at $50.6 million. Certainly an improvement from July’s $33 million, but historically August has seen higher volume numbers.
The price point with the most activity in June is the $200,000-$300,000 with 22 sales. In second place is the under $200,000 group with 14 sales. Only 3 properties over $900,000 closed in July.
Average prices from 2006 to 2010 are below; 2011 numbers reflect year to date.
Single Family Homes:
2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $765,425 ($792,010-June,$780,637-May, $764,853-April)
Multi Family:
2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $385,850 ($399,832-June, $409,389-May, $409,960-April)
Vacant Land:
2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $254,214 ($261,398-June, $261,997-May, $285,563-April)
As of September 1, 2011, there are 1,795 residential listing down 37 from 1832 residential properties for sale last month. You can expect inventory to continue to drop as sellers who haven’t sold their properties take them off the market and prepare them for winter rentals. The total dollar value of current inventory is $1.25 billion. As of the same date there are 423 land listings, same as last month.
With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 274; median days on the market is 140. Days on market again increased this month because of much less new inventory entering the market and a lack of sales
Our MLS is showing 204 residential properties currently Pending, up 33 from July. Total dollar volume of pending properties per list price is $110 million. Pending properties continue to show an increase corroborating an increase in end of summer sales activity. With pending inventory increasing slightly, you can expect to see September and October volume increase. However, I don’t expect to see them drastically increase.
According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land. When looking at inventory for sale, 6.9% of residential properties are for sale and 16.4% of vacant land parcels are for sale. Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory.
Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market. With 83 residential properties selling in July and inventory of 1,795, it will take 21.6 months to sell the entire residential inventory. Now, while there might be less than 10% of properties for sale, the lack of buyers can make for a long holding time.
Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in July from 2004 to 2011:
July 2004 $89.3M
July 2005 $122.0M
July 2006 $122.1M
July 2007 $138.2M
July 2008 $80.6M
July 2009 $47.4M
July 2010 $38.5M
July 2011 $35.5M
Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2010 is as follows:
2004 $1.12B
2005 $1.47B
2006 $1.63B
2007 $1.63B
2008 $1.06B
2009 $683M
2010 $698.4M
The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.
What does all of this mean to you?
July residential numbers were anemic – a historically low month especially during the summer! As I mentioned a few months ago in this newsletter, this summer was going to be a barometer of how the Summit County real estate market is faring. Unfortunately, it is not picking up, instead it appears to be continuing a slow road downward. Can August and September transactions save the summer? We will have to see but it does not look like there will be any impressive increases. Instead, the Summit County Real Estate market will likely remain flat.
Sales volume is down 63% from the height of 2006. This factor is the biggest change in our market creating an over-supply and under-demand for Summit County real estate, putting downward pressure on pricing. Sales are steady if not slowing, but surely not increasing. With months of inventory close to two years, it is still a buyer’s market and depending on which neighborhood you want, it could be the perfect time to buy.
To the Sellers out there: It’s a buyer’s market and this summer did not show signs of improvement. With almost twenty-two months of inventory county wide, you have to know that one out of every 22 listings will sell each month. How are you going to ensure your property is that one?
To the Buyers out there: My advice has not really changed – although I know you are wondering if we have hit the bottom. I would say we are in the bottom zone, but you never know when the bottom has hit until it’s over. I thought this summer would provide more sales than it has which means there are probably anxious sellers out there. Within this buyer’s market, you can find the right property for a price that we haven’t seen in years. Note that more competition exists in the under $400,000 market.
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