January 2013 Summit County Real Estate Statistics

Real Estate Statistics

Solid November numbers continuing recovery.

2012 exceeds 2011 without December numbers.

November proved to be a strong month in Summit County real estate even on the tail of October which was record breaking.  There were 154 total transactions with $66.86 million in dollar volume.  For residential properties there were 133 closings with $61.44 million in dollar volume.  Year over year, dollar volume increased by 14% and number of transactions increased by 8%.  A modest increase, but a continuation of a positive trend that has been happening since July where the statistics truly began to show a turnaround from the recession.

 

While dollar volume and number of transactions are increasing, median pricing remains fairly flat.  The Median Single Family YTD (from last month) indicates a 6% increase ($619,000 from $583,750 in 2011), The Median Price of Multi- Family YTD shows a 4% increase from 2011 ($317,550 from $305,000 in 2011) and Median residential Vacant Land continues to increase with a 32% increase ($230,250 from $175,000 in 2011).  The price of Breckenridge residential vacant land has really skyrocketed this year.

November’s strongest price point was the $200,000-$300,000 price range with 30 total sales.  In second is the $300,000 - $400,000 price point with 26 sales.  The price point under $200,000 came in third with 18 closings.  And in fourth and fifth were $400,000-$500,000 with 17 and $500,000-$600,000 with 14.  Only 6 properties over $1m sold in November.  Average prices from 2006 to 2011 are as follows; 2012 numbers are year to date averages through November 2012:

Single Family Homes:

2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $734,262
2012 - $758,972

Multi Family:

2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $367,280
2012 - $352,875

Vacant Land:

2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $246,478
2012 - $316,556

As of January 15, 2013, there are 1,013 active residential listings in Summit County, down 98 from a month ago.  The total dollar value of current inventory is $708M.  Inventory will continue to drop until spring.  As of the same date there are 335 land listings.

With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 404; median days on the market is 239 – these numbers continue to creep up as inventory falls and no influx of new inventory comes on the market.

Our MLS is showing 145 residential properties currently Pending with a total dollar volume of $86M.  Pending sales are down from November and December.

 

According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land.  When looking at inventory for sale, 3.9% of residential properties are for sale and 13% of vacant land parcels are for sale.  Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory. 

 

Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market.  With 133 residential properties selling in November and inventory of 1,013, it will take around 7.6 months to sell the entire residential inventory.  We are closer than EVER to reaching the 6 month “par” number.  Once inventory drops below 6 months of inventory, it will become a seller’s market.

Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in November from 2004 to 2012:

November 2004   $116.3M
November 2005   $193.5M
November 2006   $138.2M
November 2007   $156.9M
November 2008   $58.0M
November 2009   $64.6M
November 2010   $60.1M
November 2011   $58.5M
November 2012   $66.8M

Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2011 is as follows:

2004                            $1.12B
2005                            $1.47B
2006                            $1.63B
2007                            $1.63B
2008                            $1.06B
2009                            $683M
2010                            $698.4M
2011                            $684.2M

The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.

If you would like to see the statistics from Land Title that provides the source for this newsletter, here is a link: 

http://www.ltgc.com/files/breckenridge-marketstats/NOVEMBER2012SUMMIT.pdf

 

What does all of this mean to you?  

Buyers:  November numbers, which continue to show signs of improvement, show as an overall market we are climbing out of the bottom.  Price appreciation, while not noticeable yet, is showing signs in some sectors.  Absorption rate is hanging around 7 months which is very close to “par” for market conditions.  Vacant land costs have taken a jump and developers are building new product, feeling bullish that when their projects are done, demand will be in place to purchase the new units. As each day passes, you will see that prices will continue to increase and desirable, well priced product will be purchased quickly. 

Sellers:  2013 might be your year. With the top selling properties under the $500,000 price point, you will be more likely to sell if you own in that price range.  Inventory is low now so if you have a property that can be competitive in the marketplace, consider listing it now instead of being buried in the spring influx of listings.  And as I have said many times before, market conditions are segmented by community and property type.  For a realistic analysis of your chances of selling, contact me directly for a customized report.

 

Thanks to Land Title for the great statistics!