Monday, January 9, 2012

Summit County Colorado Real Estate Market Conditions - January 2012

Real Estate Statistics

November dips in dollar volume and number of transactions.
Inventory continues to decrease in Winter months.

November 2011 had a total of 114 residential improved transactions, down 22 from October’s 136. Total residential dollar volume in November was $52.8M down from 62.7M in October, a decrease of 15.7%. Ironically, the decrease in dollar volume from September to October last month was also 15.7%.

Dollar volume for all types of property was $58.2 M in November, a decrease of 14% from October’s $67.8 M. Last month decreased by 15% from September to October. Total number of transactions in November for all types of real estate was 142 down 19 from October’s 161. November 2011 dollar volume was down 3% from November 2010 which posted $60.1M in sales.

December 2011 residential sales from our MLS indicate 107 residential properties sold with dollar volume at $51.8 million.




The price point with the most activity in November is the $200,000-$300,000 with 32 sales,. In second place is the under $200,000 price point along with the $300,000-$400,000 price point with 20 sales each.
Average prices from 2006 to 2010 are below; 2011 numbers reflect year to date.

Single Family Homes:

2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $745,009 ($750,429 – October, $754,370 - September $768,831))

Multi Family:

2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $363,865 ($362,619 – October, $373,023 – September, $376,646)

Vacant Land:

2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $255,079 ($252,903 – October, $245,372 – September)

As of January 5, 2012, there are 1,191 active residential listings in Summit County, down 111 from 1,302 at the beginning of December. You can expect inventory to continue to drop until May. The total dollar value of current inventory is $877 million. As of the same date there are 341 land listings, down 32 from November.

With respect to residential listings, average days on the market is 332; median days on the market is 213. Days on market again increased this month because of much less new inventory entering the market. DOM will continue to increase until spring when more new listings come on the market. At that time, expect for average days on the market to drop dramatically.

Our MLS is showing 123 residential properties currently Pending, down 60 from December. Total dollar volume of pending properties per list price is $66.4 million. Pending properties dropped dramatically this month. Closings in January will likely be even lower than in December.




According to Summit County assessor data there are 25,660 residential properties and 2,564 pieces of vacant land. When looking at inventory for sale, 4.6% of residential properties are for sale and 13.2% of vacant land parcels are for sale. Industry experts say that a healthy market has less than 10% inventory.
Industry experts also say that more than 6 months of inventory is a sign of a weak or “buyers” market. With 114 residential properties selling in November and inventory of 1,191, it will take 10.4 months to sell the entire residential inventory.
Below are the total dollar amounts of sales in November from 2004 to 2011:

November 2004 $116.3M
November 2005 $193.5M
November 2006 $138.2M
November 2007 $156.9M
November 2008 $58.0M
November 2009 $64.6M
November 2010 $60.1M
November 2011 $58.5M

Total Dollar Volume for 2004-2010 is as follows:

2004 $1.12B
2005 $1.47B
2006 $1.63B
2007 $1.63B
2008 $1.06B
2009 $683M
2010 $698.4M

The year 2006 had the most dollar volume totaling $1,637,874,800.

What does all of this mean to you?

November 2011 was only underperformed by November 2008, two months after the stock market crash. The market is still sluggish and sellers are not listing properties at this time pushing down inventory numbers. Buyers have less options to choose from an properties are pulled from the market during the busy ski rental season. Consumer confidence in the economy will push many buyers into the game while prices are still competitive.

To the Sellers out there: There are signs that things are getting better – or at least, not getting worse! If you are thinking about listing a property for sale and do not have it rented, it might be a good time to list it while inventory is decreasing and before the spring influx of new inventory.

To the Buyers out there: If you are waiting in the wings for things to get worse, you may not have much more time! There are still good deals out there but once consumer demand picks up, the lack of inventory will go quickly.
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